Aerial Devices from Belarus Cause Disruption in Lithuania. Criminal Networks or a Political Provocation?

Each time the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are launched across the border, with boxes of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.

Over the recent period, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's primary air hub into closure 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the officials are certain they are facing something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers before, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses organised crime to influence adjacent states," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, military police head out in the border zone.

The balloons are most common under cover of darkness.

Patrols establish temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The frontier line is now defined by a high security barrier, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."