Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The mean number of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent official figures. But, security experts have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to signal better national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the lowest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it might hide periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.