From Grudging Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”