Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."