Past this Pomp of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Trip: An India-Russia Relationship That Has Frayed.

This rhetoric and visuals from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent official trip to India hinted at a enduring two-way partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders took a ride together, echoing a familiar diplomatic gesture. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", founded on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's 10th trip to India over his quarter-century rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.

A Chasm Between Symbolism and Substance

However, a clear disconnect persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this alliance. Although Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are in fact buying less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two nations signed numerous memorandums of understanding covering mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational collaboration. However, anticipated announcements on major defence deals did not happen. India has not concluded any major defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation fueled by delays in deliveries of platforms and components as Moscow prioritizes its own wartime requirements.

A Relationship Losing Strategic Heft

These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer carries the identical geopolitical weight it previously possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its allies. This privileged alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both countries have attempted to maintain a appearance of this special tie through a "special and privileged" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the same significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the Western world.

Broadening and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its crucial links with Moscow. But, as external coercion increases on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to broaden the relationship into new areas. During Putin's visit, they unveiled an joint economic programme extending until 2030, designed to make their ties "broader, equitable and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian products to address a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Bonds and Perceived Dependability

At an ideological level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among senior generations of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial support during the Cold War. This has translated into a degree of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, where American officials have issued sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.

The key difficulty, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration issued during Putin's India trip contained no reference to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated assertion that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the conflict have been minimal.

Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Global Balancing Act

This dynamic does not belie the underlying contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is poised to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, after a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a trilateral technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen cultural contacts between India and Russia.

How can India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the elimination of a key irritant in its relations with the Western bloc. But, should a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia relationship will undoubtedly continue in European and American governments.