Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.