The Former President's Ukraine Peace Proposal Constitutes a Gift to Putin

Initially, the former US president seemed to adopt a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer if Putin continued hindering peace talks, the former president eventually imposed substantial penalties on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's plan would effectively favor Putin for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in danger. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the plan actually weaken that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, like giving Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's war is not merely about controlling a charred area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel Ukraine to abandon all of this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in more than a decade of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defenses critically undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Putin a open path to the capital in case he subsequently decide to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, the proposal sets no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All radical belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." As if to emphasize this element, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied land in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should the international community trust this commitment this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the plan threatens a "immediate unified military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars vary from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the security presence, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate parallel deal according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. But unlike a capable national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not