Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.